After the rise of anti-neoliberal governments in Latin America, the right has retaken the initiative and unleashed a strong counteroffensive of neoliberal restoration. This movement began with the violence of the opposition and international isolation of the government of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. This was followed by the electoral victory of Mauricio Macri in Argentina. It has continued with the coup in Brazil that unseated Dilma Rousseff. A new episode was the defeat in the plebiscite called by the government of Evo Morales on the legal possibility of his being a candidate for a new presidential mandate. And finally, there is the about-turn of the government of Lenin Moreno, elected by the left with the decisive support of Rafael Correa, but who rapidly changed course and joined the movement of conservative restoration in the continent.

This year is decisive for the future of Latin America, in particular due to the elections in two countries with great influence in the region: Mexico and Brazil. In Mexico, the left won with the election of López Obrador. But this country could remain isolated and not represent a significant change for the region, depending on the electoral results in Brazil.

The conservative change of direction in the continent had a decisive moment in the coup of 2016, which, alongside the defeat of the left in Argentina, added another right-wing government, dismantling the axis which had been the fundamental support for advances in the process of integration in Latin America. From that moment, the two governments have become the reference point of the new Latin American panorama, with the predominance of righwing governments.

This underscores the importance, for Latin American and internationally, of this year’s Brazilian elections. If the right can manage, through new tricks and institutional violence, to maintain themselves in government, the shift to the right may become a long-term consolidated process. If, on the other hand, as one can now anticipate, the Brazilian left returns to power, it would change the correlation of forces in Latin America, with the governments of Mexico and Brazil coming to hold a key role in taking up once again the processes of continental integration.

The probable new victory of the left in Brazil, in addition to the immense significance that it would have in this country, curbing the brutal offensive of the right and at the same time beginning a process of national reconstruction with an anti-neoliberal program, would signify that in principal the conservative counteroffensive in Latin America would be reversed.

The impact of the latest presidential elections, in spite of the victories of the right in Chile and Colombia, means principally a return to the anti-neoliberal governments, interrupted by the rightist offensive. In the case that the anticipated triumph of the left in Brazil is confirmed, Lula would return to figure as the most important popular leader in the continent, including on the entire left, returning to play a role of strategic leadership for the future of the left in the world.

At the same time, Brazil would immediately reassume its role in the BRICS, favouring the recovery of the processes of Latin American integration in the framework of the project of building a new world order.

The tumultuous failure of the Macri government makes his reelection in 2019 very difficult, although it hardly matters what kind of candidate could predominate in the opposition. In Bolivia, even though facing greater difficulties than they had in past elections, Evo is the favourite for re-election. The same would be the case in Uruguay, whoever may be the candidate of the Frente Amplio.

In any event, the probable victory of the left in Brazil, added to that of Mexico, will surely have consequences for the whole continent and the destinies of various countries. It would be possible to stop the process of dismantling Latin American integration that affects Mercosur, Unaur and Celac, and give a new impulse and amplitude to these processes.

31/08/2018

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan and Joan Remple Bishop)

- Emir Sader, Brazilian Sociologist and Political Scientist, is the Coordinator of the Laboratory of Public Policy at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ).