A few persons have contacted me regarding the interview that I offered to VOCES DEL MUNDO where I said that, in my view, Donald Trump will lift the commercial, economic and financial blockade that the United States has maintained against Cuba for more than fifty years.

The reasons I put forward for saying this were explained in the interview, but because of a problem, seemingly a time limit in the radio program, they only broadcasted the claim, but not the reasoning behind it, which has created a logical question among all those who read the interview.

CubaNews, edited by Walter Lippmann, was interested in the subject and that is why I write this article. After it is published by CubaNews, I will also publish it in El Heraldo and send it to other recipients, because Walter showed interested in the subject and I consider he should have priority in spreading what I think.

The commercial, economic and financial blockade was imposed hoping it would stifle the Cuban Revolution and at a certain point the Cubans would have to apologize to the United States so they would lift it and we could survive.

None of this has happened; the Cuban Revolution, with difficulties, has continued to live and advance expanding its trade relations with other countries, while the United States has been absent and has therefore lost many commercial and economic opportunities. Had the blockade not existed, they would have participation and now it is other countries that benefit from those opportunities.

The outgoing President Barack Obama has repeatedly raised the futility of the blockade at this point in time and, in addition, has expressed his opinion that it should be lifted. I believe that Obama’s opinion is the reflection of companies and corporations eager to start having commercial relations with Cuba and make profits that the blockade prevents them from obtaining.

In statements made by Obama and the instructions he gave after December 17, 2014 in order to create the best possible conditions for the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Cuba, he told his team that they should initiate talks with Congress aimed at lifting the blockade on Cuba. Something was done, but with no results.

In recent years, a small number of bills have been presented in the United States Congress aimed at releasing some aspects related to the blockade.

The HR 664 bill, named Freedom to Travel to Cuba Act of 2015, was introduced by representatives Mark Sanford (R-SC 1st.) And James Mc Govern (D-MA 2nd). The bill established the possibility for American citizens to travel freely to Cuba.

This project had 127 co-sponsors: 109 Democrats and 18 Republicans.

The HR 3238 bill, called The Cuba Trade Act of 2015, introduced by representatives Tom Emmer (R-MN 6th) and Cathy Castor (D-Fl 14th), would allow private businesses to trade unrestrictedly with Cuba. This project had 22 co-sponsors: 12 Democrats and 10 Republicans.

Bill HR 3687, titled Cuba Agricultural Export Act, introduced by Representative Eric A. Crawford (R-AR 1st), would allow the use of credits for US agricultural exports to Cuba and also to make investments in private agriculture in Cuba. This project had 38 co-sponsors: 15 Democrats and 23 Republicans.

The interesting thing about these projects was precisely that a number of Democrats and Republicans associated themselves with them, which showed there was a bipartisan interest, although really limited. Notwithstanding all that, it can be said that there are precedents of interest by certain congressmen in the matter.

Now let’s go to Trump. He is a businessman and like many businessmen he recognizes how useful it would be to have the financial, economic and commercial constraints between the two countries disappear, so that all businessmen may establish relationships that will provide profits to their companies. The important thing is not exactly what happened, but what is going to happen.

In his latest statements, he mentioned that he could reverse everything Obama did, because to do so Obama had invoked the powers that the Presidential Order offered him, which now he, as president, has the possibility to overturn. However, Trump also stated that the future of relations between the two countries would be determined by what Raúl Castro and he could agree upon. Perhaps he is planing to travel to Cuba, or to invite Raul to travel to Washington.

I remember my interview several years ago with the president of the American Leaf Tobbaco Company, owner of the Partagas patent in the United States. The Cuban Revolution had nationalized the lands where they planted tobacco, the warehouses and the factory.

This man’s proposal was as follows. Cuba would give them the exclusive distribution of the Partagas cigars in the United States for five years and they would not make any claim for the nationalized goods. At the end of the five years, the patent became the property of Cuba. If Cuba considered it convenient, they would continue to distribute Partagas in the United States, or Cuba would take charge of the matter.

According to the executive, in those five years they would earn far more money than the worth of what had been nationalized, and they would also recover a good part of the losses caused by all the time that, because of the blockade, they had not been able to sell a single Partagas cigar in the U.S.

That’s the way a business man thinks. Something similar was offered to me by other companies that had been nationalized in Cuba, whose interest was to start trading as soon as possible and stop losing profits, or seeing how opportunities were taken up by different countries such as Russia, China, France, Spain and others. “Time is Money” and if they continued to waste time, they would continue to lose money.

There are companies that are really eager to be able to trade with Cuba and the blockade is the only thing that prevents it.

The trade of cigars of different brands could reach about 900 million dollars.

The Havana Club Rum trade could represent about 500 million dollars.

Tourism would also be an important source of business. One million Americans could travel to Cuba annually. They would spend an average of 400 dollars in air fares, according to the place of provenance; that would mean 400 million dollars for the transport companies. If each traveller stays one week in Cuba, they would have to pay a tourist package of approximately 550 dollars, which would represent 550 million dollars for the US tourist agencies.

On the aspect of golf courses, as we know, Trump companies had been exploring possibilities. Since the companies are now operated by his sons, it would come as no surprise that among some of the groups of businessmen who quite frequently visit Cuba, an executive of his sons’ companies might be present.

The trade of medicines and vaccines can also be an important area to consider. The price fixed for medicines in Cuba is relatively low, especially lower than the ones set for the same drugs when produced in the United States, where labor is much more expensive. The treatments in the United States are exorbitant, and the difference between the purchase price in Cuba and what the patient has to pay in the United States for using those medicines can represent an income of hundreds of millions of dollars for US clinics and laboratories.

Cuban nickel, important for US industry, is being traded in the month of November at $ 11,000 a ton. If out of our production, quite committed to other countries that are standard buyers, we would be kind enough to sell 1,000 tons to the United States, this operation would total 11 million dollars.

The lifting of the blockade could lead to joint exploration and exploitation between US and Cuban companies in the maritime economic zone of Cuba, where there are oil deposits and where the US presence could guarantee the application of techniques that allow exploitation with high standards of security. How many millions of dollars would this operation involve? It is a little risky to calculate, but it would run in the hundreds.

The free zone of the port of Mariel could also be of great interest for American companies. This port is conveniently located for ships departing from Florida, Louisiana, Texas and other cities with coasts to the Gulf of Mexico.

It is a modern port, equipped for the reception of containers and ample facilities, in whose free zone, besides having the possibility to establish industries, the American companies could count on warehouses whose operation and maintenance would be much cheaper than what they could get in their country.

These warehouses would not only serve to supply to Cuba the articles that it needs to buy, but also to distribute from those warehouses to clients in Central America and the Caribbean.

There are other products that American companies have shown interest in; as there are many products made in the United States that Cuba is interested in, including agricultural products and equipment, medicines, equipment of different types, tools and machine tools, maritime, land and air transport equipment, supplies for the tourism industry, computer systems and software and others.

The commercial exchange between the two countries can reach a high level, benefitting from the proximity between both. It does not require high costs of transportation or storage in large quantities, since the source of supply is only a few hours by plane and two or three days by sea, if the warehouses are not placed in Cuba.

The US economic situation, with a high commercial and financial deficit, the 94 million people that are outside the labor force and the official –under calculated–unemployment rate of 4.9 percent, Trump’s alleged policy of canceling Free Trade Agreements, and the return to the United States of jobs that were sent to other countries requires liberalized trade and a market that will help to improve to some extent the internal situation in the US. Trade, economic and financial relations with Cuba could be of assistance in that regard.

Some have tried to argue that Donald Trump is indebted to the Cuban community for having won Florida. Those who say that have not bothered to analyze how the Cuban American vote went in those elections. There Hillary Clinton received the majority of the votes of that community, so there is no debt whatsoever, and Trump can feel free to make the decisions on Cuba that he deems more convenient. Besides that, according to surveys, about 65 percent of Cubans living in Florida favor an improvement of relations with Cuba.

The lifting of the blockade will favor the international image of the United States, show the world that a more rational policy is being developed and also eliminate the possibility that next year, at the United Nations General Assembly, Cuba will again submit the resolution on the blockade. Trump could even argue that this action responds to compliance with a resolution taken at the last meeting of the body. In addition, the action would benefit US relations with Latin America and other countries, which feel limited in some way to carry out operations with Cuba for fear of being fined by OFAC.

This action on the part of the United States requires not only the wishes of Trump, but also that Congress approves what he proposes. A Congress such as the one that will work with Trump, where both chambers will have a Republican majority, offers very favorable conditions for an agreement on the lifting of the blockade against Cuba, regardless of some opposing voices that will be heard in the congressional floor.

The lifting of the blockade may be one more among the surprises that Trump has already given us.

November 16, 2016.

- Dr. Nestor Garcia Iturbe

A CubaNews translation. Edited by Walter Lippmann.

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