Bolivia

The MAS thwack: the process of change is being consolidated in Bolivia

Mariano Vázquez

11/10/2014

Opinión

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El MASazo (the MAS thwack) was employed by the President-candidate Evo Morales last Wednesday in El Alto. And even the opposing candidates are in no doubt that on Sunday, October 12, they will be hit hard in the general elections in Bolivia.

It looks like a solid vote for the Movement toward Socialism (MAS) from all levels of society: from the loyal, hard, historical support of social movements and rural areas, including important groups of the middle class, and even sectors of the business class who have benefited from the economic bonanza and the security of being able to invest and reap high dividends. The support for the nine years of administration is also visible in the shift towards support for the government among sectors historically opposed to the process of change.

All the surveys predict an overwhelming triumph on the part of President Morales, averaging some 60 per cent of the votes and with more than a 40-point lead over the second place. The opposition, presenting candidates linked to the neoliberal tradition that excluded and repressed social movements, have resigned themselves to struggle for the leadership of the opposition, which is seen as mainly symbolic. Thus in recent weeks, the cement manufacturer and former minister of Planning from the privatization period (1989-1993), Samuel Doria Medina, and the former president and favourite of Washington, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, launched an all-out mutual attack, each accusing the other of being on the side of the Government. Claims for a single candidacy, demands for a debate to see who represents the real opposition and memories of an unholy past appeared on the front pages of the Bolivian media. In total, they hardly pass 20 per cent of projected voting.

“It’s the economy, stupid”, said the ex-president of the United States, Bill Clinton, in a campaign, in order to emphasize the fact that citizens vote thinking of their well-being. And it is, without a doubt, the economic bonanza that is defining the across-the-board support for the administration of Evo Morales. It is worth recalling that in 2006, Bolivia went out to beg money from international bodies, at the end of each year, in order to pay the Christmas bonuses. International reserves were in very bad shape and the country was considered the second poorest in the continent, after Haiti. Government was in the hands of a white moneyed elite.

With the historic breakthrough of the elections of 2005, the indigenous-campesino-natives, the workers, the subsoil of the country became the protagonist of a brand new process in the history of Bolivia.

Destabilizing efforts, including practices of regional separation inspired by the balkanization of former Yugoslavia, attempted coups d’état, directly under the influence of the US Embassy, were dissolved and today the great majority recognizes the achievements of the Morales administration. The milestones are many in number. In macroeconomic policy: the Gross Domestic Product has quadrupled, international reserves grew to 15 billion dollars, bank deposits went from three to 15 billion. The nationalization of hydrocarbons generated resources that were distributed in the nine departments, in the universities, in the management of social benefits for children and adolescents of school age, those over 65 and women for raising their children. In addition, extreme poverty was reduced from 38 per cent to 18 per cent in nearly nine years.

Without losing its anti-imperialist, anti-neoliberal and anti-colonialist character, or the support of social movements (“We govern in obedience to the social movements”, Evo often repeats), the process of change has gathered unimaginable supporters. The intention to vote did not go below 42% in any place in the country.

Two-lane highways, drinking water even in the most isolated areas, massive installation of gas for housing, development of rural areas, three cable-car lines in the city of La Paz, the Telecommunications satellite Tupac Katari, literacy and post-literacy campaigns fulfilling the Unesco goals: these are social landmarks that work together with control of inflation and an annual increase in workers’ wages. These are actions that, while quite logical in appearance, were unheard of in the history of Bolivia. Promises for the future speak of a country with unlimited growth, which will become the energy heart of South America. Industrialization is the challenge that the government has established for the years 2015-2020.

Economic well-being can be felt in the streets. It is normal to hear the positive phrase: “how Bolivia has changed!”

The official expectation is to obtain a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the Plurinational Assembly. This appears to be possible if one looks that the multitude of actions in the four departments of the so-called “half-moon.” The latest survey gave the President fifty per cent of the intended vote in the unruly department of Santa Cruz. Morales, who has broken all the electoral records, is heading for another one: winning in all nine departments of the State.

The MASazo is coming.

La Paz, October 10 2014

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan Bishop)

- Mariano Vázquez @marianovazkez

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