The United Kingdom has decided to leave the European Union. Fear of immigration and its negative effects led a majority of the British people to support the Leave campaign, and resulted in a Brexit victory in the referendum. This referendum result will affect the agreements on economic growth entered into by the member states of the EU, and also its neoliberal ideological principles. One example of this new antidemocratic tendency is the way President Hollande’s government used a special measure to force a labour law through the French National Assembly without a vote.

The negotiations for the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) have stalled, although the trade deal is being secretly negotiated between Brussels and Washington. However, there is a growing preoccupation with the treaty on the part of several European partners, who have voiced serious concerns over some of its objectives, in particular those related to food standards, climate issues, and the way it over-empowers multinationals at the expense of the states. On the other hand, the United Kingdom is the world´s fifth largest economy, and has enjoyed an excellent relationship with the USA for many centuries, so a trade treaty such as the TTIP between the two Anglo-Saxon powers would greatly benefit both their economies. It was to this that Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, was alluding when he declared: “They took back control of their country – that’s a great thing!”, a statement which contrasted with the Democrats´ policy of silence on Brexit.

The territory of the European Union is divided into three regions with different political affinities. In Northern Europe right-wing populist and Eurosceptic parties have won elections and come to power in the majority of the countries. Right-wing populism or neo-populism began in Argentina with Carlos Menem, and in Peru with Alberto Fujimori, both of which were underdeveloped countries in crisis which applied the neoliberal measures dictated to them by Washington.

In Finland the ultraconservative Timo Soini, leader of the True Finns Party, has been Deputy Prime Minister since 2015, governing in a centre-right coalition. Meanwhile the far-right Danish People´s Party is the second biggest force in parliament, and supports the current centre-right President Lars Løkke. Norway, the land of the fiords, is not a member of the European Union. The government that came into power in 2013 was led by Erna Solberg, leader of the Conservative Party, who gave seven ministries to the far right, including such important ones as the Ministry of Social Affairs and the Ministry of Finance.

The Law and Justice (PiS) Party of Poland, led by its President Andrzej Duda, an ultra- conservative right-wing politician with very close ties to the church, has an absolute majority in the parliament. Poland is a highly complex geopolitical area: its accession led to the enlargement of the EU to Eastern Europe, and it is now the biggest recipient of EU funding for infrastructure and industrial innovation. It is also a key member of NATO, where it plays an active role. It shares borders with neighbouring Russia and Belorussia, while in ideological terms it subscribes to the anti-European rhetoric that is fast gaining ground in Protestant Anglo-Saxon countries.

So far the rest of Europe has stayed free of right-wing populism, since the southern European peripheral countries are mainly concerned with the economic crisis and the strict conditions imposed by the Troika to ensure the rescued countries pay back the bailout money. This situation has helped bring left-wing governments to power in Greece, Portugal and Italy. Central Europe is divided over the harsh sanctions approved in Brussels against Russia for its role in the Ukrainian crisis. Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, France and Slovakia are pushing to lift or gradually phase out the sanctions on Moscow, as they are worried that their bilateral economic and trade relations will suffer. This bloc is made up of left-wing social democratic states which are not greatly in sympathy with the Atlanticist neoliberalism espoused by Germany. Meanwhile Hungary is conservative and Russophile, and President Putin is becoming increasingly admired among the population.

The countries that made up the former Yugoslavia have been affected by Brexit, since the United Kingdom was the foremost advocate of EU enlargement to the Balkans. Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo are both potential candidates for membership, but Britain’s decision to leave the EU means that both countries have had to put their aspirations on hold. In the case of Kosovo, a country which has a Sunni majority, the end of its European dream may force it to turn to Ankara, whose Turkish President Erdogan pursues an Islamic foreign policy whose goal is to influence former territories of the Ottoman Empire in the Mediterranean.

- Francesc Casadó, political analyst.