This morning the electoral victory of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) was confirmed, although some simply say: Daniel won. The final results are not yet complete, but there is already an irreversible tendency, with 38-40% for the Front. That makes a difference of 8 to 10% between it and the Liberal Alliance, which comes in second place. The liberals of Alemán are in third place and the Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) in fourth. These preliminary results have been confirmed by Ethics and Transparency with their fast count and various independent counts. There will not be a second run because the difference between first and second place is more than 5 %, and first place exceeds 35% as required by law. The voting turnout was massive, calculated at between 75 and 80%, the best turnout in Latin America, and greater than in the United States. Why do people feel so compelled to vote? Because they desire, hope, and dream about a change.

Reactions

Beginning with reactions, I am glad about the victory of the Sandinista Front. I certainly would have been appalled if the liberals had won, whether those of the millionaire banker Montealegre, or even worse Rizo, since he is tied to Alemán, the ex-president condemned to prison for money laundering (at least 20 million dollars). And I am pleased with the victory of the Front because, especially in the campaign, one saw the great endorsement and expectation that the Front has generated among youth. And I am also glad because the Front’s program is a good one, with clear priorities of well being for the people in the areas of health, education, employment, housing etc... In another sense, I enjoy thinking and hoping that this result will really improve things for our people in the most impoverished and excluded regions. I am also happy about the massiveness of the voting turnout- it had been said that there was going to be a low voter turnout. The substantial number of votes, in the middle of so much present frustration, is a sign of the reserve of hope that the people have and a firm desire for change, especially now with the disastrous government of Bolaños.

It is a hesitant happiness, because of the fear that the Front will not fulfil its promises. Concerning the MRS I feel bad that it did not receive more votes, not considering the Presidency, just wishing it had more weight in the National Assembly so as to balance out the debate between the representatives.

Impressions or pre-analysis of the results

If one wonders why the Front won; I believe there are several elements that explain it. I enumerate some of those factors, leaving for later a deeper and more relaxed analysis.

Some contributing factors to the victory of the Front:

A) Many people are already very tired of the failure of the liberal-neoliberal governments who have governed for 16 years and that have heightened the concentration of wealth and the extreme poverty of the people.

B) The Front campaigned intelligently, taking advantage of the errors made by its adversaries and using these positive elements:

(1) The Front ran an intense campaign, working house by house with many and good activists (hopefully this work ethic is not only produced during the campaign, but that the Front returns with this passion, working with and from the bottom).

(2) The Front ran a positive campaign, with proposals, non-confrontational, and without virulent attacks on other parties.

(3) The Front has an ample base of firm votes - around 30% -, including a large group of Christians with a tradition of revolution since the struggle against Somoza.

(4) The Front made alliances with a wide range of groups and institutions: with the "excontras" (ex-counter revolutionaries); with some somocistas (supporters of the ex-dictator Somoza); with Cardinal Obando; with some liberals like Morales Carazo, ex-adviser of Alemán and of the "contras", and who is the candidate for vice-president. Of course many of us criticized that those alliances could be seen as being made just for the election, but they worked for the Front. The campaign insisted on reconciliation and peace. Nevertheless, some thought of the reconciliation as a cloak, that united for electoralist purposes, but that also "covered over" the deep historical differences, and those in vision and values.

(5) The Front paid special attention to youth.

(6) The errors of the liberals benefited the Front, for example the very confrontational and offensive style of their campaigns, and the ties of liberal candidate Rizo with the ex-president Alemán.

(7) The division of the liberal votes into two parties that ferociously attacked one another repeatedly.

(8) The errors made by the government of Bolaños. More of the same was not wanted.

(9) Similarly, the shameless and constant interference of the US government, through its ambassador and other personalities from its agencies like AID, rather caused a nationalistic reaction in a good part of the population.

(10) The campaign, with so many economic resources, was able to have many (too many?) giant advertisements on the TV, radio, billboards on the avenues and main traffic circles of Managua and in other parts of Nicaragua, as well as very widely spread, very well presented written material.

(11) Taking advantage of its proximity with the Cardinal was seen as an indication of reconciliation with the hierarchical church, and the continual propelling of a very explicitly religious message.

Some weak or more debatable points of Front’s campaign

I already indicated above the excessive expenses and the “electoral reconciliation”, even with somocistas and contras even though they have shown no signs of change. The debatable point from both sides of their proximity with Cardinal Obando.  In addition I offer the following points: In the campaign, very little was spoken of Sandino and nothing was said of Carlos Fonseca- who are assumed to be the founding roots of the Front. All of the large posters were colored pink, and only in a very small amount, on the voting sheets, appeared the red and black of the Front. But this is at the leadership level, because people's rallies always used the red and black flag. The campaign makes some promises that are almost impossible to keep or are not expressed clearly like, for example, zero unemployment.

Some concerns

The main concern is whether the Front will fulfil all of its promises. The failure to do so would be a tremendous frustration for the people that voted for the Front, especially for the youth.

Another concern is whether the international commitments, like with the IMF, will allow the Front to act with enough freedom, for example to act against the privatization of electrical energy and to designate fair and necessary funds for health and education. Equal concern exists over the implementation of the FTA-CAFTA that seriously affects small-scale farmers and medium-scale producers.

The pressure of the United States, which was not only manifest in the campaign, but also when the electoral results were announced, will influence the stance not only of the Front, but also of the two liberal parties within the National Assembly.

And the last, and very important, concern is whether the Front is going to change in the key aspects that have been criticized, like the pact – or whatever they want to call it- with Alemán; the corruption of several leaders; and the mega-salaries of its representatives and everything that points to the excessive affluence of its leaders, as well as the purification, the de-corruption of the legal system. It is also hoped, specifically, for transparency in the trials of drug dealers, who have been easily released in the past years.

A mission that remains for all of us sandinistas: to put our heart and soul into the making of a New Nicaragua; and both within the party, and from civil society, we must be very demanding with the Front in these respects: fulfilling its campaign promises; having a continuous relation with the people and listening to their demands and proposals; accepting constructive criticism and being self-critical; transparency and non-corruption; and popular participation at all levels of society. We must also demand that it fulfils the due responsibility of attending to the needs of mothers of young people fallen in the war and of disabled veterans, and that it retrieves what it has previously affirmed: that the children should be the main beneficiaries of the Revolution, because during the last 16 years they have been forgotten and abandoned by the past governments. And at the level of ideals: operatively recover the legacy of Sandino and Carlos Fonseca.

- Arnaldo Zenteno, Comunidades Eclesiales de Base (CEB - Church Grass Roots Communities)

Managua, Nicaragua, 6 of November 2006