After a month and a half of an electoral campaign with studies of public opinion showing that three quarters of the voters "want a change of government", at less than two weeks from the elections of October 19 to elect a new Federal Parliament in Ottawa, from which will emerge a new government, the soundings indicate that the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) of the last Prime Minister Stephen Harper could become the first minority in the Parliament.

If this is the case Harper will be able to form the next government -- unless the two opposition parties -- the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) of Justin Trudeau and the social democratic New Democratic Party (NDP) of Thomas Mulcair decide to form a coalition (which is highly unlikely) or announce an agreement for "votes of confidence" implicit in important legislative projects, such as the budget of the federal government.

The present surveys (1) indicate that the CPC has 30.5% of the intention to vote, the LPC has 34.6% and the NDP 25.1% and that in the last month the Conservatives and the Liberals will gain ground at the cost of losses (between 6.0 and 7.0 per cent) from the NDP.

At the moment everything indicates that the final stage of this long campaign will be a struggle between the Conservative Harper and the Liberal Trudeau, but without a polarization that would totally marginalize the NDP of Mulcair.

In a previous article (2) we had mentioned the "buts..." that marked this important election, since in the end it is called to put an end to (or to continue) a decade of neoliberalism that in the social and economic plane has practically dismantled all that characterized the most advanced model of a Welfare State in the Continent and that in foreign policy had abandoned the search for a solution of conflicts through diplomacy in order to join the militaristic policies of the United States and NATO, with the bombardments in Libya, Iraq and Syria, leading to the terrible consequences that we now see, as was pointed out in a public letter of the Liberal ex-Prime Minister Jean Chrétien (3) who governed from 1993 until 2003.

The dangerous virus of Tony Blair has infected Mulcair

If Harper recuperates in the electoral districts where he could gain MPs, particularly in the provinces of Ontario and Quebec, this is not so much due to Canadians having lost interest in a "change of government" or in electing "an activist government" (4) in economic and social questions, but that Mulcair, the NDP leader, has caught the dangerous "neoliberal virus" of Tony Blair, that so easily infects social democrats.

Thus it is that, hoping to attract the vote that might go to the CPC in certain electoral districts of Ontario, the leader of the NDP promised no less than to follow the "zero deficit" policy of Harper, that is, a policy of austerity, cuts and unraveling of State expenses. As if that were not enough, seeking to gain votes in the "oil-land" and conservative province of Alberta, Mulcair refused to define his position clearly with respect to an energy policy that limits the exploitation of the tar sands in order to reduce climate change.

And in international policy – going after the Jewish vote in Toronto and Montreal -- he indicated that he would maintain the support of the Zionist government of Israel, for example.

The Liberals take the initiative

At the same time, seeing that the opportunity was opened to propose themselves as a "change" in the face of the Harper policies, the Liberals of Justin Trudeau defined themselves clearly by announcing that a budget deficit is necessary to reactivate the economy and to maintain social programmes, and they immediately recovered -- particularly in Ontario and Quebec -- part of the support that the NDP thought was secure.

The same in international policy, where the LPC gained the support of groups that were thought to be with the NDP with the call of ex-Prime Minister Jean Crétien (5) to return to a foreign policy based on the principles of a search for peace through dialogue and respect for the interests of countries. It was that simple.

The presence of the Tony Blair "virus" in the NDP was perceived well before the electoral campaign by an important group of Canadian personalities, who launched a "Leap Manifesto" (6), a clearly anti-liberal document supported by numerous personalities, indigenous peoples, unions and diverse organizations, and which has collected over 26 thousand signatures.

This manifesto -- organized by a group that represented a fraction of the left within the NDP – was aimed at bringing the NDP to clearly incorporate in their campaign the struggle against climate change, the defence of native peoples and of society in general, the abandonment of austerity policies and of the "zero deficit" in the public budget, among other themes.

That is to say the desire to "change the government" (7), to bring to an end the decade of ultra-liberal policies of Harper has not disappeared or lessened in the population, but what did change was the electoral "vector", from the NDP to the LPC.

The flaws in the Canadian electoral system

The Canadian electoral system, defined as "first past the post" system, was created specifically to perpetuate the two-party parliamentary system, "Conservatives-Liberals" of the British system, and it is profoundly anti-democratic, since the candidate in an electoral district who receives the most votes wins, with no correction on the minimum necessary to ensure a proportional representation of opposition votes, that although divided, is usually the majority.

Therefore the opinion polls at a provincial or national level can indicate a tendency that appears to give a victory to one party, while in reality what counts is the particular situation in each of the 338 districts that will elect members who will go to the Parliament in Ottawa.

The anti-democratic character is evident in electoral districts in which four parties compete: the CPC, the NDP, the LPC and the Green Party, which is the situation in all of Canada, with the sole exception of Quebec, where there is one more, the sovereigntist Parti Québécois. In these situations, because of the division of the vote, the party that has a better local organization and better financing for the "door to door" work, that has developed the "clientelism" typical in traditional politics, can win the election with a third of the votes, which effectively nullifies the political expression of the majority of citizens.

This is even more serious if we add the electoral "reform" that Harper recently put in place and which was done to maintain and amplify the "clientelism" that ensures the control of the CPC in many districts, to which one has to add the basic principle of the electoral system, which in reality "ties" the vote to the district of residence.

With respect to the latter it is worth pointing out that the Harper Conservatives recently opposed an initiative widely supported by many Canadians living outside the country -- some two millions, of whom half are in the United States according to unofficial calculations -- that would have allowed Canadians living outside of the country to vote.

The final "sprint"

In spite of all this, or perhaps because of it, one cannot exclude an eventual polarization of the vote in the last days of the electoral campaign, above all if the NDP fails to retake the initiative and continues to lose forces that in the end go to the Liberals of Justin Trudeau, who already begin to appear as the only force capable of achieving a "change of government".

But this will not be easy, because the area where this polarization could and should be decided are only a few dozen districts in the two main provinces: Ontario and Quebec. In Ontario it is quite clear that the Liberals have progressed at the expense of the NDP and probably, of the Conservative vote, more tied to traditional politics than to the ultra-neoliberalism of Harper.

But this advance could be counterproductive (because of the first-pass-the-post system), since in many districts where the Liberals will not win, the transfer of the NDP vote to the LPC may ruin the possibility for the NDP to have enough votes to defeat the Conservative candidate.

In Quebec the Liberals are not seen as an option for the sovereigntists, who still remember the "War Measures Act" of the October 1970 crisis, applied by the former Prime Minister Pierre E. Trudeau, the father of Justin, as an indicator of the centralizing federalism of the Liberals. In the last federal elections, the Quebecois were inclined to support the less centralizing NDP, but even so, it is clear that, faced with the lack of will for change on the part of Mulcair, the Liberals of Trudeau have a chance of winning some more seats in that province.

Moreover, in some districts of Quebec now held by the NDP, a small increase in the vote for the LPC could open the door for the CPC.

For all these reasons, it is difficult to foresee the results of the October 19 election, although in general terms it is probable that Harper will not win the 170 seats that he needs to form a majority government. But present soundings indicate that it is possible that Harper may end up leading the first minority in the Canadian Parliament.

The TPP on the final line

If this be the case, the PLC and the NDP may face a political dilemma with Harper forming a minority government, and hence having to support him or having to bring him down in a relatively brief period, for example when Harper tries to ratify the Strategic Trans-Pacific Agreement of Economic Association (TPP) that has just been concluded.

During the electoral campaign, Harper claimed that the TPP "would be the ‘new gold standard’ of global trade agreements" and that “our place at the table (of the TPP) means that when we make agreements with the rest of the world in coming years, (these agreements) will be made on our own terms".

Mulcair, who rejects the TPP on principle, has declared that if the NDP wins the elections it "would not be tied to that pact", adding that Harper had no mandate to sign a "closed door" agreement during the electoral campaign.

Trudeau, for his part, denounced the secrecy that was maintained with respect to what is being negotiated and said that he wanted "to see the details before judging" and to hear what "workers and industrials" had to say, and promised that a Liberal government would not ratify this agreement before it had been widely debated in Parliament".

It is possible that the announcement that the TPP has been signed will create the political and social pressures necessary for the NPD and the LPC to advance in the discussion of one of two options: 1) forming a coalition with a programme of government, sharing positions in a cabinet led by Justin Trudeau -- if he had more members than Mulcair, or the inverse, or -- as a second option -- announce at the end of the elections or shortly before, the official intention to communicate to the Head of State, the Governor General who represents the British Crown, that the LPC (or the NDP if they have more members than the LPC) will form a minority government with the support of the third minority in the Parliament.

The first option has never happened, but the second has. It was the support of the social democrats for the minority liberal governments led by Lester B. Pearson (1963 to 1968) that allowed the adoption of important social programmes (universal and free access to health care and the system of a universal pension for Canada) of the era of the Welfare State.

The problem with this is that the weaker force in this kind of arrangement (potentially the NDP) gains little political benefit because they must support policies that may be opposed or discordant with their programme, while the positive achievements will easily be attributed to the account of the party of the Prime Minister (Liberal), as happened in the past.

Nevertheless, in the face of the desire for change, to put an end to the neoliberal policies that have destroyed the programmes and institutions of the Welfare State, given that "activists government are once again in vogue" (3) it would be difficult for the LPC or the NDP to ignore, without losing political credibility, the possibility of governing together, either formally or "step by step".

In reality the Canadians, at least two thirds of them according to a poll (4) share the "dissatisfaction" with the neoliberal "establishment" (of the elites) and want an end to austerity policies because they fear the social consequences.

This is also evident in the "primaries" in the United States, with the ample support for socialist Bernie Sanders in the Democratic Party and with the persistence of support for the populist demagogue Donald Trump in the Republican Party -- as well as the victory of Jeremy Corbyn in the election to choose a new leader of the Labour Party in England.

But we should not forget that this growing "dissatisfaction", that could become (but not yet) a defined class struggle, is framed in the current political system, which is subordinated to neoliberal institutions that are out of reach of parliaments or congresses, of popular sovereignty that could exercise national sovereignty.

This implies that, in this institutional theatre of elections in countries ruled by neoliberalism, one can elect a candidate who is "anti-elite" in his speech-making, understanding or knowing that the "straight jacket" that the system imposes will prevent him from acting as he would wish in his concrete policies.

The neoliberal system is gridlocked, incapable of change and it is already possible to foresee that the constant frustration of growing desires for change on the part of citizens will end up raising the pressure in the social kettle, with foreseeable consequences, as we have seen in preceding eras of ultraliberalism, for example in the 1930s.

06/10/2015

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan Bishop)

- Alberto Rabilotta is an Argentine-Canadian journalist.

Notes

1,- Sondeo de Nanos, el 2 de octubre: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151002%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf; compilation of surveys and calculation on the possibilities of electing members: http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/poll-tracker/2015/index.html#seats

2.- Canada: a crucial national election, but... http://www.alainet.org/es/articulo/172240

3.- In 2011, recalls Jean Chrétien, the Harper government "sent our fighter-bombers to combat in Libya and we are militarily involved in Iraq and Syria. After the campaign in Libya, of which we are now aware of its disastrous consequences, the Harper government had some of our fighter-bombers fly over Parliament, a ritual characteristic of conquerors and warlike nations"   Source; http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/449908/il-etait-une-fois-le-canada-facteur-de-paix-et-de-stabilite-internationale

4.- Activist government is back in vogue, Thomas Walkom, Toronto Star 18-09-2015

5.- Paragraphs of the cited letter of Jean Chrétien, Prime Minister of Canada from 1993 to 2003: “What has happened to Canada, an advanced and progressive nation, a factor of peace and stability in the world? This is a question that is regularly posed in my trips through the four cardinal points of the planet and which provokes a great sadness. In effect, I am sad to see that in less than a decade the Harper Government has tarnished nearly 60 years of reputation as builders of peace and carriers of progress. During those years, the successive heads of government of the country, whether Liberals or Progressive Conservatives, sought to understand and influence their peers on the international scene, including those with which they were not in agreement. () Canadians must soon choose their next government, and I desire with all of my energy that they choose a government that takes its place in that history of the great tradition of builders of peace for whom Lester B. Pearson opened the way, (when in 1957 he proposed in the UNO the formation of a "peace force" to bring an end to the conflict of the Suez Canal) and that his successors followed until the arrival of the Harper government.” (Free translation from the Spanish version)

6.- Leap Manifesto (in English, French and Spanish): https://leapmanifesto.org/en/leap-news/

7.- Sondeo de Abacus Data, del 14 de septiembre 2015-09-18  http://abacusdata.ca/desire-for-change-intensifies-2015election-canada/#sthash.CmXLhIYN.dpuf